Department Seminars are scheduled from 12:30 to 2:00 in the Department conference room (726 Broadway, 7th floor, Room 747). Lunch is available at 12:00.

January 21 - Kenneth Shepsle, Harvard University. "Bargaining in Organizations with Overlapping Generations of Politicians, with Application to the US Senate." The talk will be based on the following papers:

• "Agenda-Setting Power in Organizations with Overlapping Generations of Players." (with Abhinay Muthoo)
• "Bargaining in Legslatures with Overlapping Generations of Politicians." (with Eric S. Dickson and Robert P. Van Houweling)

January 27 - Lisa Martin, Harvard University. "The United States and International Commitments: Treaties as Signaling Devices."

January 28 - Charles Cameron, Columbia University. "A Theory of Opinion Assignment in the Supreme Court, with Evidence from the Burger and Rhenquist Courts." (with Jeffrey Lax)

February 3 - John B. Londregan, Princeton University. "Constitutional Power Sharing and Policy Lock-In."

February 6 - Thomas R. Palfrey, Cal Tech. "An Equilibrium Model of Federal Mandates." (with Jacques Cremer)

February 10 - Christian Davenport, University of Maryland. "Rashomon goes to Rwanda: an exploration of the Rwandan genocide."

February 24 - Joanne Gowa, Princeton and Edward Mansfield, Penn. "Market Structure, Power Asymmetries, and Credible Commitments: Alliances and Major-Power Trade, 1907-1991."

March 3 - Ellen Lust-Okar, Yale. "Why the failure of Democratization? Explaining 'Middle East Exceptionalism.'"

March 10 - Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, NYU. "Testing the Selectorate Explanation of the Democratic Peace." (with James Morrow and Randolph Siverson)

March 17 - Krishna Ladha, NYU. "On the Stability, Preservation and Growth of Democracies."

March 24 - Shanker Satyanath, NYU. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict."

March 27 - Amrita Dhillon, University of Warwick. "Electoral Goals and Center-State Transfers: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Evidence from India." (with Sugato Dasgupta and Bhaskar Dutta)

March 31 - Fiona McGillivray, NYU. "Coalition Formation and Stock Price Volatility."

April 7 - Jeff Freiden, Harvard. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rates: Theory and Application to Latin America and the European Union."

(See also the first three papers under "recent articles" on Jeff Frieden's homepage for related research.)

April 14 - Jack Levy, Rutgers."Hegemonic Threats and Great Power Balancing, 1494/5-2000." (with William R. Thompson)

April 21 - Jonathan Nagler, NYU. Group Economic Performance, Economic Voting and Electoral Accountability" .

April 25 - Northeast Methodology Program.

All Paper Presentations in room 405 of Silver Hall (aka 'Main Building') at 100 Washington Square East, between Waverly and Washington Place. Map of NYU Campus

Paper 1: 12:30-2:00 Jeff Gill, University of Florida. "Fundamentals of Bayesian Inference."

Break: 2:00 - 2:20

Paper 2: 2:20 - 3:50 Bear Braumoeller, Harvard University. "Modeling Causal Complexity with Boolean Logit and Probit."

Break: 3:50 - 4:15

Paper 3: 4:15 - 5:45 Kevin A. Clarke, Rochester. "A New Test for Nonparametric Model Discrimination."

Happy Hour 6:00 - 7:00

April 28 - Jim Snyder, MIT. "Personal and Party Voting in U.S. Elections, 1900-2002." The talk will be based on the following papers:

• "The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An Analysis of State and Federal Offices, 1942-2000 ." (with Stephen Ansolabehere)
• "Using Term Limits to Estimate Incumbency Advantage when Officeholders Retire Strategically." (with Stephen Ansolabehere)

April 29 - Gary King, Harvard University. "Enhancing the Validity and Cross-cultural Comparability of Survey Research."

For more info: Anchoring Vignettes Web Site